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Market Sentiment Slows Down on Regional Base

  • DAR Wong
  • 21 May 2018

Fundamental Outlook   The U.S. housing growth slips while jobless claims improve slightly. China grew at slowest pace for fixed asset investment in non-rural sectors. Britain declines in earnings and claims for jobless benefits increase.

The U.S. retail sales gained 0.3 percent in April and down from revised 0.8 percent in March. Excluding automobiles, core prices also grew 0.3 percent but below expectation.

American building permit expanded 1.35 million in April compared to revised 1.38 million in previous month. Another report on housing starts rose 1.29 million and below forecast.

Industrial production including utilities and mines grew 0.7 percent after rose 0.6 percent in March. Jobless claims at 222,000 in the week ended 12 May and best in 4 weeks average. 

China’s industrial production rose 7.0 percent in April from a year ago and higher than previous month. Fixed asset investment gained 7.0 percent on year basis and lowest in historical record.

Japan’s producer prices rose 0.2 percent in April from a year ago and matched forecast. Preliminary GDP for Q1 seasons contracted 0.2 percent and worse than forecast. Revised industrial production grew 1.4 percent in March and highest in 3 months.

German preliminary GDP for Q1 seasons grew 0.3 percent and lower than forecast. Another report on ZEW sentiment report on institutional investors contracts to minus 8.2 in May and stay sluggish.

Flash GDP for Eurozone comprising 19 countries rose 0.4 percent in Q1 seasons. Final consumer prices in April grew 1.2 percent from a year ago. Core prices rose 0.7 percent on annual basis.

The averaging earnings of U.K. citizens grew 2.6 percent on quarterly seasons ended March, lowest in 3 months’ record. Claimant counts for jobless benefits increased to 31,200 in April and twice higher than forecast. Unemployment rate stays at 4.2 percent.   

 

Technical Forecast   USD/JPY advanced last week but resisted at 111.00 region. This week, we reckon the trend will encounter strong bears at 111.00 – 111.50 region and depend on Dollar Index USDX to lead the directional headway. Tight range is expected since support is laid at 110.00 level unless the trend pierces beyond either direction.

EUR/USD is almost hitting the support at 1.1750 region as it closed on Friday. Market is constricted to 1.1750 – 1.1900 range in case there is a recovery this week. The sentiment is starting to become mixed and traders are observing the Dollar Index (USDX) to decide the potential of Euro now.

GBP/USD is slowing down in selling trend as the market approaches 1.3450 area. Technically speaking, the market is prone to make a rebound at 1.3750 level in case of short-covering among traders. Though we foresee the range to be temporary sideways from 1.3450 – 1.3750 region, risk control must be managed if the bears engulf below 1.3450 level.

 

Disclaimer: This article is written for general information only. No liability by the writer, publisher or any third party involved in the distribution of this work.

DAR Wong is a registered fund manager in Singapore with 29 years of global trading experiences. You may reach him at dar@pwforex.com


About the Author
DAR Wong (Singapore)
An international speaker with 27 years of trading experience in the global financial markets, DAR is a Market Master and author of “Living Daylight in Stock Market: Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days”.

DAR Wong is an active market trader, registered fund manager, educator and author.He began his career in 1989 as an institutional Futures trader with Bank of America. DAR Wong specializes in trading global derivatives and financial markets. He has 26 years of experience accumulated through tenure with Bankers Trust, Barclays Bank, Citigroup (Smith Barney Shearson Inc) and as an independent trader.

DAR is the author of “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market” and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional traders and active investors.

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financial professionals and investors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China, Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East (UAE).

DAR is registered with NASD (now known as FINRA) series 3 and 5 as approved by National Futures Association (NFA) of USA and holds a current portfolio as Fund Strategist and Advisor with Dektos Investment registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore.

DAR is profiled as “One of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading “. In January 2015, DAR was honored with Outstanding Award for International Financial Market Analysis granted by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand).

DAR is the author of "8 Waysto Invest in China's Emerging Market" and contributes frequently to regional media, including financial TV/Radio programmes, newspapers and magazines for professional tradersand active investors.1

He is a popular and sought after international speaker who has presented to financialprofessionals and inverstors throughout the region including Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, China,Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines, Sri Lanka, India, South Korea, Laos, Vietnam, United Kingdom and Middle East(UAE).2


Year
2003 - Set up ASPRI to provide hedging advisory for corporate clients and training for financial professionals
2009 - Released first book “8 Ways to Invest in China’s Emerging Market”
2010 - Profiled as “one of the most successful traders – Market Masters” in Brent Penfold’s bestselling book “The Universal Principles of Successful Trading” along with Larry Williams, Andrea Unger, Michael Cook, and Daryl Guppy etc
2011 - Received “Spirit of Enterprise”awarded by Singapore Management University in Singapore
2012 - Honored with Individual Diamond Career (Thailand) awardedby Royal Privy Council of Kingdom of Thailand
2013 - Appointed Vice Chairman of ASEAN-China Commerce Association and led a delegationtothe annual China-Asean Expo in Guangxi Province, China
2014 - Fund Manager cum Director in Dektos Investment Corporation registered with Monetary Authority of Singapore
2015 - Released new book “Living Daylight in Stock Market - Monetizing Your Profits in 8 Days” in January
2015 - Honored with Outstanding Award in International Financial Market Analysis awarded by ASEAN Commerce (Thailand)
2016 - Honored with Medal of Integrity by Royal Councilin Palace of Palembng, Indonesia

References

1.TV programs on ChannelNewsAsia (Singapore);Radio on 95.8 Capital (Singapore); Newspapers such as The Borneo Post (Malaysia), 资汇报 (Malaysia); Regional financial magazines such as The Analyst (India), 东盟商界(ASEAN, China), 资本杂志 (Malaysia).

2.Spoke at events for CME Group, Euronext LIFFE, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Singapore Exchange, Korea Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Thailand Futures Exchange, Jakarta Futures Exchange, Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, Tokyo Commodity Exchange, Interactive Brokers, Xinhu Futures, Hangzhou Money Fair, China (Shenzhen) International Finance Expo, China (Guangzhou) International Finance Expo, Euromoney, CIMB, Maybank, RHB, UOB Bank, Asia Trader & Investor Convention, Global Rubber Conference, International Rubber Conference, Malaysia Rubber Board, International Rubber Research and Development Board,Malaysia Ministry of Agriculture, Rubber Industry Smallholders Development Authority, Vietnam Rubber Association, Cambodian Rubber Association, Bureau of Agriculture Research Philippines, Myanmar Rubber Planters & Producers Association etc.